As of this morning we are 29 days away from the NHL trade deadline which is March 3rd at 3pm EST. The Penguins have 25 games left on the schedule. In just under 2 weeks the NHL will close its doors so that its players can take part in the Winter Olympic Games in Vancouver. During those two weeks there will be a roster freeze in the league beginning Feb 12th which will make the first of March a very interesting day.

Much of the next 4 weeks will depend on the contact talks with Sergei Gonchar
Don’t doubt it, NHL GMs are not going on vacation, neither are the coaching staffs. They will be hard at work trying to force a buyer into a seller across a league that has 26 of 30 teams still in legitimate contention for a playoff spot. Now over the next two weeks leading into the games it is possible that 2-4 more teams will fall off, but don’t count on it. The only clubs that are for sure sellers (or should be) now are the Toronto Maple Leafs, Carolina Hurricanes, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Edmonton Oilers. Two of those teams have players that the Penguins should have legitimate interest in. From the Leafs Ray Shero should be giving a serious look to Alexi Ponikarovsky and from the Canes Ray Whitney should be getting at least mild consideration to go on either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin’s wing. Ponikarovsky makes more sense as a long term piece. He speaks Russian and can fill that companion hole that could be left open by a failure to sign Sergei Gonchar, who is reportedly seeking a 3 year deal.
There have been rumors that the Penguins might also be looking at RJ Umberger out of Columbus. He carries a $19,430 daily cap hit on his $3,750,000 salary. He’s under contract until the end of the 2011-12 season but I don’t think Shero makes that move and presses the Penguins nose up against the salary cap unless he can unload Mark Eaton’s $10,363/day in return. Still after this season acquiring Umberger would leave us little room to resign Kris Letang who is a RFA after this year.

Ponikarovsky could be the answer on Malkin's wing, if he could be signed reasonably after this year.
Believe it or not the Penguins must go bargain shopping at winger because defense must be the focus at the end of the year. Only Brooks Orpik and Alex Goligoski are on the blueline books for next year. Right now the loss of Eaton, Gonchar, Letang, Jay McKee and Martin Skoula would only free up $9,210,000 in cap space to go with the $402,025 that exists now. That a grand total of $9,612,025 free on defense. The hope is that Sarge will sign for something more reasonable, but no one really knows where those talks are. Also of note from The Confluence is that the Ducks put Dman Nick Boynton on waivers yesterday and assuming no one in front of Shero has interest Skoula may have played his last game in a Pens uniform Monday night.
With four defensemen to sign there is no way the Penguins take on Umberger’s salary. Ponikarovsky poses an equally perplexing problem at $2,105,000 and is UFA at the end of the season. Shero goes there if he senses Sarge will be gone. The reason Whitney makes more sense than Umberger is because he is UFA at the end of this year and the Penguins wouldn’t have to worry about dealing with a $3.335mil Cap hit next season. Whitney would be a rental unless he was willing to stay put for a bargain price.
On the forward side only Bill Guerin, Ruslan Fedotenko, and Matt Cooke have no deal for next year. Include their salaries and the Penguins have a grand total of $14,982,962 of cap space based on this year’s total. The Salary Cap is expected to move slightly but not so much as to totally invalidate that figure. The lynch pin in all of it is Gonchar. If he signs before the deadline is sets things in one direction. If he doesn’t Shero will have to make some moves assuming he won’t be here.

Umberger's contract is too much of a long term weight and he used to be a Flyer.
Also don’t forget that Brent Johnson is currently here on a 1 year flyer. There is no backup signed for next year which is how Shero usually runs it. I don’t think John Curry is ready. It’s not the Vancouver collapse. It’s how he responded to it back in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton after his return. After being sent back down Curry was yanked two more times back to back as he admittedly had a hard time bouncing back. Having a hard time bouncing back against AHL level competition is not what makes a NHL goalie. Beej is making $525,000 this year. That’s a steal. He has played well enough to contend for a starting job elsewhere if he wants to.
Beyond potential Trade Deadline deals Pittsburgh still has those 25 regular season games. 12 of them are on back to back nights. Thats the bad news. The good news is that looking at the opponents 2009-10 performance its not that tough of a sled. On the Forecheck did a great breakdown of Strength of Schedule based on oppositions point percentage yesterday (among other factors) and going into last night’s game against the Sabres Pittsburgh has the 8th easiest remaining schedule with rest of their opponents grabbing .553 of available points.
Pittsburgh has 13 home games and 12 road games left. Their last great road trip is March 11th through the 18th when they will play 5 road games in 8 days. All of those games are on the east coast but two are against New Jersey who the Penguins have failed to solve this year. The Caps are there 3 more times but so is Carolina twice, The Rangers twice, The Islanders three times, Atlanta twice in April, and Toronto once. That’s 13 of the 25 right there.
The Penguins are in good position for the end of this year. The are now 1 point behind New Jersey for the Atlantic and tied at 71 points with the Northeast leading Sabres. The Devils do have 3 games in hand on us so those games in March are going to be critical. Pittsburgh is on pace to put up 102 points which easily puts them into the playoffs.
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